How Important Are Speed Figures in Handicapping a Horse Race? by Malachi Cronin

You look at the racing form and your eyes dart all over the page as you attempt to process all the information. You attempt to make sense of all the cryptic letters and numbers hoping to find one key that will tell you which horse is going to run better today based upon how it has run in the past. Suddenly you see in bold the speed figures from the horse's last race.

"Now this makes sense!" you say to yourself. "This IS a horse race after all and the fastest horse should win every time!"

If it was only that simple, my friend. Although many feel that it IS that simple. A high Beyer Speed Figure in a horse's past performance should tell us that this horse is faster than a horse with a lower figure, right. Many base their bets solely upon this premise and soon realize that there is much more to being a good punter than just picking the highest number under the heading of speed. But what other variables might skew this almighty indicator of success in horse racing?

Flesh and Bone - Horses are flesh and bone, no different than you and me. They are susceptible to the same problems that any professional athlete with the one difference in that they are unable to tell a trainer as plainly as they might like that their muscles ache or their joints are stiff....or exactly how MUCH their muscles ache. They are a domesticated animal yet still have a part of their brain that tells them to try to hide any sign of weakness or illness. So, even though your horse may have run brilliantly in his last race, he might not be feeling quite as spry as he was three weeks ago or three months ago.

Track Bias and Condition - Perhaps in a horse's last race at this or another track where his speed number was so superior he got a good post position. It could be that the track was slow or muddy and he was able to get in front and along the rail at the beginning of the race and hold the lead from wire to wire. The poor horses behind him had a bad trip with mud being quite literally thrown in their faces or having to go outside and around to avoid the mud thus giving our horse a far superior finishing time in comparison to those in the back of the pack.

Fitness - Perhaps we need to dig a little deeper in our handicapping and evaluation of this horse and see how often he had been run just previous to the race with the high Beyer Speed Figure. Had he just come off a three month rest? Had he been raced only once or twice since his rest and is he on the same schedule as today's race? Is he as fit as he was on that day? Does his recent daily workout show that he still has that speed in comparison?

Jockey - Is our horse being ridden by the same jockey as he was in his last race or the race where he showed all that speed? Perhaps the horse likes this particular jockey or perhaps the jockey knows how to get the best out of this particular horse?...knows his running style or his likes and dislikes such as where the horse likes to run and where he won't run well. Is this jockey successful and does his or her winning percentage show that?

These are only a few of the hundreds of things that one should take into consideration when handicapping a race. Yes, speed is important and a horse lacking in it holds little chance of being competitive but a hundred things can and will go wrong along the course of a race that will affect how a horse runs. This is what makes horse racing so exciting and handicapping such a delightful challenge!

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